Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:44:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
81 0x8105…3287 other 333 markets active 3h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,163 (-1%) realized −$2,172 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%152W / 180L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$715per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$571est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,347
7 days−$508
14 days−$8,148
30 days−$6,511
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$2,311
sports 16% −$5,531
world 1% +$1,031
crypto 1% −$2,006
politics 0% +$154
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -8.3% -17.1% 49% 46% -14.3%
≤30d 195 -15.3% -23.4% 50% 47% -11.5%
≤90d 332 -17.6% -25.4% 46% 44% -10.2%
all 332 -17.6% -25.4% 46% 44% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.4% 44% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -32.5% 39% -18.8%
15% -39.1% 29% -26.6%
20% -45.0% 21% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$665) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -23% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$389 vs −$351 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$217
Realized−$2,172
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses152 / 180
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$571
Open positions1
Markets (closed)332 / 333
History coverage73d
Avg bet$715
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 332 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $208 $217 +$9 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 148 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $202 +$281 +139%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $199 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $202 −$199 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $214 −$210 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $203 +$213 +105%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $996 +$200 +20%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $200 −$162 -81%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $325 −$320 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $672 −$665 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $293 −$286 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $425 −$422 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $220 +$205 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $152 −$150 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $161 +$290 +180%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $197 +$238 +121%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $301 +$55 +18%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $199 −$194 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $662 +$259 +39%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $138 +$142 +103%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $88 −$87 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $410 −$400 -98%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $515 +$285 +55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $406 +$444 +109%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $92 +$173 +188%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $211 −$206 -98%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 12 $163 −$160 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $184 +$193 +105%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $152 −$146 -96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $706 +$232 +33%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $290 +$301 +104%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $453 −$447 -99%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $325 +$127 +39%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $201 +$125 +62%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Will Indonesia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $996 +$217 +22%
Will FC Imabari win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $131 −$128 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $8,029 +$1,053 +13%
Argentina vs. Honduras: Draw at halftime? Jun 06 $1,225 −$1,200 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $892 +$162 +18%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $808 +$421 +52%
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1,512 +$403 +27%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Portugal vs. Chile: Draw at halftime? Jun 06 $604 +$244 +40%
Will Sierra Leone win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $265 +$395 +149%
Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands: Draw at halftime? Jun 06 $508 +$595 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $212 3h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $482 14h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $202 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 44¢ $202 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $199 16h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 55¢ $202 17h
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 33¢ $214 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $416 19h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 20h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,196 20h
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 10¢ $38 20h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 82¢ $996 20h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $200 21h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $325 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $672 46h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 26¢ $293 47h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 47h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 76¢ $425 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $220 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $152 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $96 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $248 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $8 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $60 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $435 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $217.14 · official $217.14 (match) · 601 history records