Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:15:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
81 0x8105…955a sports 439 markets active 4d ago coverage 349d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,408 (-3%) realized −$1,408 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%165W / 271L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$576est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2,402
14 days−$792
30 days−$1,832
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$3,635
other 22% −$5,827
crypto 6% −$364
world 0% $0
culture 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -23.8% -31.1% 25% 21% -25.2%
≤30d 138 -18.7% -26.5% 36% 36% -12.7%
≤90d 195 -5.6% -14.6% 37% 37% -13.1%
all 436 -7.9% -16.6% 38% 37% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 37% -13.0%
10% -24.6% 36% -21.3%
15% -31.9% 35% -28.9%
20% -38.6% 33% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$78 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

349d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,408
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses165 / 271
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$576
Open positions0
Markets (closed)436 / 439
History coverage349d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 436 Trades
no open positions (171 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $439 −$431 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $961 −$522 -54%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $514 −$132 -26%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $523 −$34 -6%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $507 −$417 -82%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 15 $250 +$153 +61%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $255 +$386 +152%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $378 −$129 -34%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $306 −$168 -55%
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $103 −$85 -83%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $203 −$162 -80%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $306 −$300 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $1,299 +$8 +1%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $503 −$60 -12%
Will Jackson Suber win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $306 −$293 -96%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1,235 −$571 -46%
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $389 −$204 -52%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $308 −$300 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $403 +$144 +36%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $581 +$1,131 +195%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $235 −$177 -75%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $214 +$509 +237%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $508 −$313 -62%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $1,683 −$744 -44%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $448 +$563 +126%
Will Jesper Svensson win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 13 $338 −$190 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 13 $103 −$77 -74%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 13 $103 −$72 -70%
Will Ryan Fox win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 13 $29 +$23 +80%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 13 $472 −$289 -61%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $306 −$80 -26%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $306 +$309 +101%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $2,028 +$963 +48%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $313 −$130 -41%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $184 −$52 -28%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $417 −$332 -80%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $687 +$331 +48%
Will Nick Taylor win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) Jun 11 $405 +$308 +76%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $203 −$200 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $579 +$419 +72%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $608 +$477 +78%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $137 −$134 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 10 $52 −$50 -96%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $19 −$18 -98%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $66 +$42 +64%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $92 +$173 +188%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 40¢ $2 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 40¢ $438 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $439 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $958 4d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $382 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $489 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros 10¢ $90 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $520 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 54¢ $507 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 23¢ $256 4d
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea SELL D family 100¢ $402 5d
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY D family 63¢ $101 5d
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY D family 57¢ $48 5d
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY D family 62¢ $101 5d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $514 5d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 39¢ $255 5d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $249 5d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $133 5d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 16¢ $138 5d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $245 5d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 34¢ $306 5d
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $18 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Boston Red Sox $42 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 42¢ $203 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $306 5d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels $4 5d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels $41 5d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays 95¢ $1,045 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 904 history records