Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:41:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x8108…706a world 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% −$9
other 26% $0
sports 21% −$5
politics 18% +$2
tech 3% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.9% -10.3% 29% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 25 -0.9% -10.4% 24% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 34 -0.5% -10.0% 26% 0% -9.7%
all 43 -3.7% -12.9% 33% 9% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 9% -9.9%
10% -21.2% 5% -18.6%
15% -28.8% 5% -26.4%
20% -35.8% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 29
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage525d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 76¢ 75¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 21 $90 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $34 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $71 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $75 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $87 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $4 $0 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $34 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $29 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $80 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $79 −$1 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $28 $0 -0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 07 $1 $0 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $53 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $20 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 30 $6 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $34 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $35 −$1 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $35 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $39 −$4 -11%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $282 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 25 $68 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $484 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $39 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $253 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 15 $8 +$1 +7%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $253 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $230 $0 -0%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Dec 10 $3 +$2 +49%
Will "Conclave" win Best Film at the 2025 BAFTA Awards? Feb 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Sweden vs. USA Feb 17 $3 $0 +2%
Clemson vs. Florida State Feb 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Oregon State vs. Portland Feb 16 $4 +$3 +85%
Buffalo vs. Northern Illinois Feb 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Boston Univ. vs. Bucknell Feb 12 $2 $0 -9%
Makhachev vs. Moicano Feb 03 $11 +$1 +11%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Jan 22 $1 $0 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $33 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $0 4h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $31 4h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $31 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $32 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $2 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $9 28h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $26 28h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $7 41h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $7 43h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $3 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $3 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $37 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $37 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 87¢ $3 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $31 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $32 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $34 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $34 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $29 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $29 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $21 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $4 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.00 · official $33.00 (match) · 153 history records