Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:10:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x8109…0497
crypto · 460 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$374 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$380 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$380
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses244 / 215
Open positions1
Markets (closed)459 / 460
History coverage4d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day717.1
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 459 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$300
7 days+$380
14 days+$380
30 days+$380
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $49 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $80 +$18 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $54 +$12 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $80 +$38 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$70 +636%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$14 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$5 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$7 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$12 +359%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $33 +$21 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $29 +$17 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$40 +254%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $66 +$20 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $17 +$8 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $33 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$374
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 29m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 459 +3.1% -6.7% 53% 46% -5.7%
≤30d 459 +3.1% -6.7% 53% 46% -5.7%
≤90d 459 +3.1% -6.7% 53% 46% -5.7%
all 459 +3.1% -6.7% 53% 46% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover717.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 46% -5.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 39% -14.8%
15% -23.8% 32% -23.0%
20% -31.3% 26% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.18 · official $0.54 (match) · 3500 history records