Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:18:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
81 0x810a…2f0b other 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized −$7 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%21W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$3
14 days+$6
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$10
sports 18% +$3
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -4.3% -13.5% 42% 40% -8.0%
≤30d 50 -2.8% -12.1% 42% 40% -8.5%
≤90d 50 -2.8% -12.1% 42% 40% -8.5%
all 50 -2.8% -12.1% 42% 40% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 40% -8.5%
10% -20.5% 34% -17.3%
15% -28.2% 30% -25.2%
20% -35.2% 26% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses21 / 29
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)50 / 56
History coverage26d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 82¢ 94¢ $60 $69 +$9 (+15%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 32¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+71%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 45¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 46¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $56 +$4 +8%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 29 $2 +$2 +104%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 28 $1 +$3 +305%
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 28 $4 +$1 +27%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $2 +$6 +289%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $4 +$2 +47%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $2 +$3 +164%
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $2 +$5 +236%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $34 +$5 +15%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $1 +$2 +225%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 +$3 +128%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 26 $5 +$3 +61%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 26 $3 −$2 -49%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 +$5 +248%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1 $0 -39%
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 25 $4 +$2 +41%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 1 Haiti? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -92%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -92%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $18 −$3 -18%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 +$3 +113%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $7 +$1 +15%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $2 +$4 +205%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Iceland? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +118%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +32%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $2 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 82¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 81¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 82¢ $61 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Japan? BUY No 92¢ $56 4h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 9h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 9h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 9h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 43h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 2d
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2d
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2d
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 86¢ $34 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 3d
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 3d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 3d
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 3d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 3d
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 3d
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 34¢ $1 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.19 · official $85.19 (match) · 114 history records