Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:15:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
81 0x810c…51ca sports 538 markets active 1h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6,899 (-4%) realized −$6,899 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate70%377W / 161L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$361per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$98est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$33
14 days+$151
30 days+$286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$2,074
other 41% −$4,145
world 1% −$272
politics 0% −$91
crypto 0% −$37
tech 0% −$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -4.2% -13.3% 59% 47% -7.3%
≤30d 64 +5.0% -5.0% 56% 45% -5.1%
≤90d 99 +3.6% -6.3% 58% 42% -8.2%
all 538 +6.2% -3.9% 70% 37% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 37% -11.4%
10% -13.1% 20% -19.8%
15% -21.5% 11% -27.6%
20% -29.2% 5% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$149 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,899
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses377 / 161
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$98
Open positions0
Markets (closed)538 / 538
History coverage246d
Avg bet$361
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 538 Trades
no open positions (38 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $40 −$6 -14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $17 +$25 +149%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $37 −$13 -36%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 +$16 +40%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $47 +$11 +23%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $400 +$10 +2%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $400 +$10 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $28 −$13 -46%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $66 −$7 -11%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $91 −$10 -11%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $50 +$14 +27%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $60 +$22 +36%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $50 −$41 -82%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $400 +$8 +2%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $101 −$9 -9%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $51 +$45 +90%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $151 −$32 -21%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $402 −$36 -9%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $100 −$34 -34%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $41 +$44 +109%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $101 +$61 +60%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $272 +$70 +26%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $15 −$13 -84%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $200 −$73 -37%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $237 −$22 -9%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $231 −$13 -6%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $151 −$5 -3%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $30 −$10 -32%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $25 −$25 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $37 −$20 -55%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $25 +$21 +83%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $30 −$4 -14%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $30 −$21 -68%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $25 +$36 +140%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $18 +$52 +291%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $81 +$105 +129%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 31 $40 +$15 +38%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Madison Keys May 30 $26 −$26 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $20 +$42 +206%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $60 +$16 +26%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $37 −$18 -48%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 28 $33 +$10 +31%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $191 +$9 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Tomas Machac vs Alexander Zverev May 27 $100 +$13 +13%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Marina Bassols Ribera May 27 $50 +$14 +27%
Roland Garros ATP: James Duckworth vs Rafael Jodar May 27 $100 +$17 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 73¢ $34 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $40 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 89¢ $42 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 35¢ $17 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $24 9h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 51¢ $24 21h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 78¢ $37 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 26h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $40 3d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 81¢ $47 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $400 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 97¢ $400 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 19¢ $15 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $28 4d
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Miomir Kecmanovic 56¢ $32 4d
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 65¢ $40 4d
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Fabian Marozsan 28¢ $2 4d
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Fabian Marozsan 29¢ $8 4d
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 67¢ $25 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $100 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 86¢ $100 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 67¢ $40 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 35¢ $21 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 5d
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch BUY Martin Landaluce 78¢ $50 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 13¢ $9 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 73¢ $60 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 70¢ $50 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 98¢ $400 7d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter SELL Elena Rybakina 73¢ $92 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1306 history records