Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:20:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x8116…35f8 crypto 23 markets active 6d ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$10 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate73%16W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$4
crypto 25% +$2
world 18% −$18
tech 12% +$25
politics 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.9% -7.8% 60% 20% -7.6%
≤30d 8 -10.8% -19.3% 62% 12% -11.6%
≤90d 9 -8.1% -16.9% 67% 22% -11.4%
all 22 -5.8% -14.7% 73% 18% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 18% -9.1%
10% -22.9% 5% -17.8%
15% -30.4% 0% -25.7%
20% -37.2% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses16 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage238d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 24¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 11 $9 −$1 -12%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 11 $33 +$2 +6%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 11 $129 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $194 +$6 +3%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $15 +$2 +13%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 02 $78 +$2 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 02 $118 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? May 02 $7 +$1 +13%
Will Opinion launch a token by June 30, 2026? Feb 23 $222 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 05 $19 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on January 1 Feb 05 $20 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 05 $26 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 17? Feb 05 $65 $0 +0%
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 31, 2026? Feb 05 $264 +$2 +1%
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? Jan 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 8? Jan 09 $226 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 08 $201 +$25 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Oct 19 $23 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Oct 19 $95 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Oct 19 $2 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 16, 11PM ET Oct 19 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 60¢ $8 6d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 87¢ $35 6d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $129 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $199 6d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $17 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $194 15d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 81¢ $33 15d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 66¢ $9 15d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 15d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 15d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $98 24d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $6 24d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $7 24d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $5 24d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $7 24d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $6 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 24d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $98 46d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $78 46d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $20 46d
Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? SELL No 97¢ $7 46d
Will Opinion launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $221 114d
Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? BUY No 86¢ $7 123d
Will Opinion launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $222 132d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua SELL Yes 97¢ $10 148d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on January 1 SELL No 100¢ $10 151d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? SELL No 95¢ $13 151d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua BUY Yes 97¢ $19 151d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY No 95¢ $26 151d
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? BUY No 15¢ $8 151d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.15 · official $0.15 (match) · 67 history records