Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:36:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x8116…815e sports 627 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,388 (+4%) realized +$2,387 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%321W / 301L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day38.1pace
Fees−$428est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$90
14 days+$2,998
30 days+$1,505
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$2,090
other 1% +$34
politics 0% −$7
world 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -7.5% -16.3% 52% 46% -8.4%
≤30d 316 -1.4% -10.8% 52% 45% -6.0%
≤90d 622 -1.4% -10.8% 52% 44% -6.6%
all 622 -1.4% -10.8% 52% 44% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 44% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 38% -15.6%
15% -27.1% 33% -23.7%
20% -34.3% 26% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$12 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$2,387
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses321 / 301
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$428
Open positions5
Markets (closed)622 / 627
History coverage77d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day38.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 622 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Under 67¢ 74¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+11%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Over 53¢ 54¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 181.5 Under 51¢ 51¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) New Zealand 96¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $988 +$12 +1%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 22 $991 +$10 +1%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $3 +$1 +22%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $3 +$2 +77%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $5 +$1 +23%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5 +$3 +64%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $11 +$4 +34%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $3 +$1 +19%
Spread: Belgium (-4.5) Jun 21 $990 +$11 +1%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $5 +$2 +48%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $52 −$6 -11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$7 -72%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $69 −$19 -27%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $40 +$30 +76%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $12 −$6 -53%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $3 −$1 -25%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $3,318 +$27 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 −$20 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -90%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-10.5) Jun 21 $1 +$1 +90%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $29 +$16 +56%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +64%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $2 +$1 +50%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $3 $0 +14%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $25 +$16 +63%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $3 +$1 +37%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $2 +$2 +76%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -56%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 163.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 +$3 +55%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3 +$3 +88%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$6 +114%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) Jun 20 $6 −$5 -79%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $1 +$2 +188%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $1 +$1 +61%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3 +$2 +68%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $3 +$2 +52%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2 +$2 +84%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $58 +$27 +46%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +60%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $14 −$3 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $1 1m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $1 3m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $1 5m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $1 8m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $1 9m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $1 11m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $5 15m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $1 15m
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 96¢ $1 18m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 30m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 31m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 33m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 34m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 35m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 57m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 100¢ $4 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $6 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $10 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $978 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 99¢ $990 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 84¢ $1 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $1 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 81¢ $1 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 79¢ $1 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 79¢ $1 1h
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 181.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 73¢ $1 2h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 86¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.46 · official $38.46 (match) · 3134 history records