Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:21:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x811a…4d48 crypto 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (91 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11 (-5%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%62W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day91.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (91 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 -4.1% -13.2% 51% 51% -17.1%
≤30d 122 -4.1% -13.2% 51% 51% -17.1%
≤90d 122 -4.1% -13.2% 51% 51% -17.1%
all 122 -4.1% -13.2% 51% 51% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover91.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 51% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 50% -25.0%
15% -29.1% 50% -32.3%
20% -36.1% 49% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses62 / 60
Open positions0
Markets (closed)122 / 122
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day91.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 122 Trades
no open positions (48 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 223 history records