Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:32:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x811c…fd36 sports 1039 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,902 (-4%) realized −$2,926 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate64%666W / 369L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day17.9pace
Fees−$420est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$320now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,896
7 days−$2,613
14 days−$2,229
30 days−$1,417
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$1,661
other 15% −$1,484
world 0% −$29
crypto 0% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -39.8% -45.5% 43% 36% -43.3%
≤30d 182 -11.5% -20.0% 63% 54% -19.1%
≤90d 824 -6.0% -15.0% 60% 50% -14.5%
all 1035 -4.8% -13.8% 64% 46% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 46% -13.2%
10% -22.1% 27% -21.5%
15% -29.6% 17% -29.1%
20% -36.5% 12% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$46 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$320
Realized−$2,926
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses666 / 369
Est. fees paid−$420
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1035 / 1039
History coverage104d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1035 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Under 85¢ 94¢ $78 $86 +$8 (+11%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Under 70¢ 84¢ $71 $86 +$15 (+21%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? No 92¢ 92¢ $75 $75 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Colombia (-3.5) Uzbekistan 90¢ 90¢ $72 $73 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $75 +$11 +14%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $70 +$12 +17%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $70 +$10 +14%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $72 −$72 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $76 −$76 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $71 +$15 +22%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $139 +$51 +37%
Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
CDP Junior FC vs. CS Cristal: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tabilo (+1.5) Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
San Diego FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elina Svitolina vs Elena Rybakina Jun 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Levante UD: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
CDP Junior FC vs. CS Cristal: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-2.5) vs Cerundolo (+2.5) Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Paris: Anna Blinkova vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Club Cerro Porteño win on 2026-05-20? Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Set Handicap: Buse (-1.5) vs Humbert (+1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will FC Ōsaka win on 2026-05-24? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Jodar (+2.5) Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $112 −$74 -66%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-23? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Buse (+1.5) Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Anhelina Kalinina vs Anna Bondar Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 17 $112 −$64 -57%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-05-16? Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 17 $143 −$19 -13%
Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-05-16? Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Fiji win on 2026-06-09? Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-05-24? Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jessica Pegula vs Iga Swiatek Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Shōnan Bellmāre vs. Vegalta Sendai end in a draw? Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $224 −$118 -53%
Will Yokohama FC win on 2026-05-23? Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $124 −$124 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-3.5) BUY Uzbekistan 90¢ $72 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $72 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $75 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $78 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Croatia 87¢ $75 7h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $72 7h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $76 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $86 7h
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY DR Congo 87¢ $70 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $71 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $70 11h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 75¢ $119 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 88¢ $89 20h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $74 22h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 89¢ $72 22h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY 73¢ $139 23h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $73 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $73 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 80¢ $81 23h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Algeria 64¢ $64 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $79 25h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 80¢ $81 27h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 42¢ $42 27h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $76 28h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Iraq 81¢ $78 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $81 28h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL Senegal 90¢ $86 29h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $77 41h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 81¢ $77 41h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $320.05 · official $320.05 (match) · 2295 history records