Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:17:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
81 0x811d…a99f crypto 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$82 (+3%) realized +$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate63%66W / 39L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$127
7 days+$42
14 days+$59
30 days+$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$142
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +18.1% +6.8% 71% 71% -2.2%
≤30d 67 +13.0% +2.3% 66% 66% -2.4%
≤90d 105 +8.8% -1.5% 63% 63% -4.0%
all 105 +8.8% -1.5% 63% 63% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 63% -4.0%
10% -10.9% 62% -13.2%
15% -19.5% 47% -21.6%
20% -27.4% 37% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$23 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses66 / 39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)105 / 105
History coverage44d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 105 Trades
no open positions (39 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$50 +159%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$20 +63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$27 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$17 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$9 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $62 −$60 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$23 +74%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$7 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 19 $62 +$40 +64%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $62 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$17 +54%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$20 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$48 +152%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$11 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$44 +141%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$33 +106%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$39 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $61 −$60 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $63 −$60 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$11 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$15 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$10 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $31 +$9 +29%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $31 +$30 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $31 +$20 +65%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 09 $30 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 09 $31 −$30 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 08 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 07 $42 +$45 +110%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 07 $41 +$33 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 06 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 06 $20 +$5 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 05 $21 +$37 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 04 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 04 $21 +$20 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 03 $21 +$23 +111%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 03 $21 −$20 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 03 $21 +$15 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $31 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $31 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $31 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $31 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $30 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $62 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $31 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $30 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $62 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $62 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $31 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $31 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $31 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $31 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $31 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $31 8d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $31 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $31 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $31 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $31 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $31 10d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $31 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $61 10d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $63 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $31 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $31 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 171 history records