Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:42:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
81 0x811d…6059 world 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate69%20W / 9L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$5
other 30% +$4
sports 6% +$1
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.8% -7.9% 43% 14% -8.9%
≤30d 17 +1.8% -7.9% 59% 12% -8.6%
≤90d 17 +1.8% -7.9% 59% 12% -8.6%
all 29 +0.8% -8.8% 69% 14% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 14% -8.6%
10% -17.5% 0% -17.3%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×5.29 per $1 lost it wins $5.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses20 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage477d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 47¢ 50¢ $31 $33 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $41 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $54 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $128 +$1 +1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $2 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $9 +$1 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $42 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 11 $38 +$1 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $38 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $17 +$2 +14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $62 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $9 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $70 +$1 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 19 $2 $0 +4%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 17 $2 $0 +15%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? May 06 $1 $0 +2%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 34-39m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by March 31? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -60%
India wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 17 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $18 $0 +1%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 12 $1 $0 +18%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 11 $13 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Hornets Mar 07 $13 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $31 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $29 4h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $11 4h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $41 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $2 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $40 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $41 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $7 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $34 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $42 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $42 33h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $41 35h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $29 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $10 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 17¢ $9 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $20 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $21 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $5 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $36 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $5 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $2 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.67 · official $32.67 (match) · 114 history records