Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:03:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x8120…f076 other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%18W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$6
other 19% $0
politics 14% $0
finance 7% $0
tech 4% $0
sports 3% −$1
crypto 3% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -1.6% -11.0% 33% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 9 -5.3% -14.3% 44% 0% -11.4%
all 36 -2.0% -11.3% 50% 0% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 0% -10.7%
10% -19.8% 0% -19.3%
15% -27.6% 0% -27.1%
20% -34.7% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses18 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage459d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $36 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $36 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $36 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $24 −$3 -13%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $21 +$1 +7%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $10 −$4 -38%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $80 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $38 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Jun 25 $5 $0 +9%
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 24 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 24 $3 −$1 -31%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? Jun 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will Joe Biden be named in Epstein files? Jun 10 $9 $0 -2%
Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of Ne Jun 10 $9 $0 -3%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? Jun 08 $9 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 04 $9 $0 +1%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? Apr 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Susie Wiles be out as White House Chief of Staff in Trump's first Apr 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Apr 18 $18 $0 -0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 18 $9 $0 +1%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 17 $9 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Mar 28 $11 $0 +4%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $87000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $12 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $14 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $5 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $16 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $36 1h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $35 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $35 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $36 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 27¢ $17 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 27¢ $4 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 31¢ $14 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 31¢ $10 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $4 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $23 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $13 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $23 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 29d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 30d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 30d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 30d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $17 30d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $21 30d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $38 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $38 30d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $41 32d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $41 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records