Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:23:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
81 0x8120…e938 other 97 markets active 0h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$106 (+1%) realized +$106 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate47%46W / 51L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$6
14 days+$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$2
other 31% +$58
politics 14% −$7
sports 10% +$37
economics 8% −$1
crypto 2% +$9
tech 1% +$1
weather 1% +$11
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.9% -8.8% 60% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 29 +68.7% +52.6% 38% 3% -9.6%
≤90d 40 +61.4% +46.0% 35% 5% -9.0%
all 97 +33.2% +20.6% 47% 16% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.6% 16% -8.2%
10% +9.0% 12% -17.0%
15% -1.5% 11% -25.0%
20% -11.2% 9% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 41% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +50% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.83 per $1 lost it wins $3.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses46 / 51
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)97 / 97
History coverage528d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 97 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $97 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $97 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $131 +$9 +7%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $88 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $95 +$2 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $96 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $34 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $94 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $290 −$8 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $160 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $48 −$4 -8%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $258 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $93 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $72 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $96 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $202 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $73 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $6 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $8 $0 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $89 −$2 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $96 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $107 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $96 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $98 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $107 −$2 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $78 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $6 $0 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $71 +$1 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $407 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 25 $11 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $146 −$1 -1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $10 +$47 +475%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $562 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $473 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $620 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $98 −$7 -7%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Jun 28 $37 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jun 26 $6 $0 +3%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Albanese be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 05 $10 $0 +3%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 04 $3 $0 +0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Jun 04 $9 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $83 24m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $14 24m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $97 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $67 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $12 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $85 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $39 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $43 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $9 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $88 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $88 42h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $88 45h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $88 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $97 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $95 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $75 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $21 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $96 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $34 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $94 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $94 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $87 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $86 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $94 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $94 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $13 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $31 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 381 history records