Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:45:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
81 0x8123…f127 sports 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$746 (+29%) realized +$751 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%47W / 65L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$570
14 days+$566
30 days+$679
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$774
other 27% +$23
crypto 4% −$103
world 1% −$20
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +10.1% -0.4% 39% 38% +21.4%
≤30d 112 +6.3% -3.8% 42% 40% +16.7%
≤90d 112 +6.3% -3.8% 42% 40% +16.7%
all 112 +6.3% -3.8% 42% 40% +16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 40% +16.7%
10% -13.0% 40% +5.5%
15% -21.4% 38% -4.7%
20% -29.1% 38% -14.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$15 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized+$751
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses47 / 65
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions7
Markets (closed)112 / 118
History coverage22d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 48¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs 100 Thieves 54¢ 56¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims) Mitch Raposo 39¢ 34¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-12%)
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? Yes 76¢ 61¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Will Jacob Bridgeman win the 2026 TOUR Championship? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$15 +72%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 +$46 +220%
Will the announcers say "Combination" or "Sequence" 5+ times during UF Jun 15 $10 +$36 +347%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$21 +82%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$58 -57%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$19 +91%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$12 +59%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw Jun 15 $10 −$3 -30%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 15 $10 −$1 -11%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$18 +88%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $20 +$80 +388%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $51 +$30 +58%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $21 −$13 -64%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $7 +$26 +351%
Will Trump say "UFC" 3+ times during UFC 250? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 14 $21 +$55 +265%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$18 -86%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$10 +51%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $26 +$13 +52%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 +$56 +544%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $318 +$411 +129%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $21 +$28 +138%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $30 +$8 +25%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$9 +92%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $21 +$89 +433%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$12 +119%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 54¢ $20 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $41 6h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 11h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $35 12h
Will LIV Golf announce shutdown in 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 13h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $66 13h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $21 14h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 15h
Will the announcers say "Combination" or "Sequence" 5+ times during UF SELL No 90¢ $47 15h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 15h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 15h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $26 16h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $44 16h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $102 18h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $102 21h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 51¢ $20 21h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $32 21h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 61¢ $20 23h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 65¢ $41 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 25h
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw SELL Melsik Baghdasaryan 25¢ $7 29h
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma SELL Hyder Amil 42¢ $9 29h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Kyoji Horiguchi 40¢ $9 29h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 87¢ $81 34h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 7¢ $7 35h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? SELL Yes 99¢ $33 35h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 36h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 36h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 60¢ $20 37h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $20 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.96 · official $184.96 (match) · 240 history records