Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:25:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x8125…080d crypto 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
Total PnL −$33 (-5%) realized −$34 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate55%27W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$39
14 days+$39
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$92
sports 27% +$16
other 6% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +32.9% +20.2% 60% 60% +65.4%
≤30d 17 -8.6% -17.3% 41% 41% -3.6%
≤90d 23 -20.0% -27.6% 39% 39% -15.2%
all 49 +3.2% -6.6% 55% 49% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 49% -14.8%
10% -15.6% 45% -23.0%
15% -23.7% 37% -30.4%
20% -31.2% 29% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$34
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses27 / 22
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)49 / 57
History coverage123d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Sean OMalley 79¢ 78¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Kyle Daukaus 25¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 21¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) Michael Chandler 19¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Steve Garcia 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs NRG 45¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 30? No 7¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Cavaliers 38¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Valorant: Sentinels vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega Sentinels 32¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Spurs 32¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs LOUD 21¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 73¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +86%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $2 $0 -18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $35 +$37 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 30 $40 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 30 $15 −$14 -96%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali May 30 $3 $0 -5%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 May 25 $30 +$25 +83%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup America May 21 $28 +$16 +57%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 18 $5 +$6 +109%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 17 $4 +$6 +146%
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Valorant: Sentinels vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega May 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Team Liquid (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha May 11 $5 +$4 +67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 1? May 01 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 30 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 30 $13 −$12 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 19 $35 −$12 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Feb 19 $4 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Feb 16 $6 +$11 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Feb 14 $3 +$4 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Feb 14 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Feb 14 $27 −$25 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Feb 14 $56 −$29 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Feb 14 $1 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Feb 13 $17 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 13 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Feb 13 $11 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Feb 13 $4 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Feb 12 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Feb 12 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 12 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Feb 12 $45 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 12 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Feb 12 $43 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Feb 12 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 12 $5 +$2 +38%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Feb 12 $1 +$1 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Feb 12 $27 +$9 +33%
Spurs vs. Warriors Feb 12 $23 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Feb 12 $14 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Feb 12 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Feb 12 $7 +$2 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 41¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $3 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 79¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 19¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $5 1h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 52¢ $5 11h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 73¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 47h
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo SELL F5 Esports 48¢ $2 47h
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo BUY F5 Esports 57¢ $2 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $72 47h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 35¢ $0 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $40 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $0 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 15d
Valorant: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali SELL Natus Vincere 14¢ $3 15d
Valorant: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali BUY Natus Vincere 14¢ $3 15d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 BUY G2 Esports 54¢ $30 21d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 38¢ $4 22d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs BUY NRG 45¢ $10 22d
Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup America BUY Sentinels 62¢ $21 25d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 32¢ $3 25d
Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup America BUY Sentinels 66¢ $7 25d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffs BUY Team Heretics 47¢ $5 28d
Sabres vs. Canadiens BUY Sabres 40¢ $4 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.84 · official $17.84 (match) · 150 history records