Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:20:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x8125…6b3b crypto 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate93%27W / 2L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$4
14 days+$6
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% +$2
weather 31% +$2
other 17% +$5
sports 5% +$1
tech 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +3.5% -6.4% 100% 20% -7.9%
≤30d 19 -3.4% -12.6% 95% 5% -8.4%
≤90d 29 -5.2% -14.2% 93% 3% -8.7%
all 29 -5.2% -14.2% 93% 3% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 3% -8.7%
10% -22.4% 0% -17.5%
15% -29.9% 0% -25.5%
20% -36.8% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses27 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage36d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? No 95¢ 95¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $58 +$2 +3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? Jun 24 $47 $0 +0%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 23, 2026? Jun 24 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 23? Jun 23 $56 +$1 +1%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $54 +$1 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $54 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $53 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $33 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 05 $53 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 05 $52 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 05 $52 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $51 $0 +0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 03 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 26? May 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 26? May 27 $11 $0 +1%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics May 26 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 25 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 22 $52 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 22 $53 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 22 $52 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 22 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 22 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 22 $50 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 95¢ $60 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 97¢ $58 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $47 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY 89¢ $10 3d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $56 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 12d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $54 12d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 14d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $25 14d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $54 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $53 15d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $20 19d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $53 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $52 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $52 22d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $52 23d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $51 24d
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Colorado Rockies 97¢ $25 24d
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Colorado Rockies 97¢ $24 24d
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics BUY Seattle Mariners 100¢ $8 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $7 33d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $31 33d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 26? BUY No 99¢ $11 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $52 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $53 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $52 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $51 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $51 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.88 · official $59.88 (match) · 59 history records