Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:43:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

81 0x8126…a72d other 7 markets active 10h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$835 (+9%) realized +$830 · open +$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip

Net edge+21%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%4W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$1,308per market

Trades / day4.1pace

Kalshi-fit14%portable

Net worth$5,854now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+30.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+44.7%	+30.9%	100%	100%	+13.1%
≤30d	4	+44.7%	+30.9%	100%	100%	+13.1%
≤90d	4	+44.7%	+30.9%	100%	100%	+13.1%
all	4	+44.7%	+30.9%	100%	100%	+13.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+30.9%	100%	+13.1%
10%	+18.4%	75%	+2.3%
15%	+7.0%	75%	-7.6%
20%	-3.5%	50%	-16.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 33% · top 2 60% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +25% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +45% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$203 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$5,854

Realized+$830

Unrealized+$5

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses4 / 0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)4 / 7

History coverage3d

Avg bet$1,308

Trades / day4.1

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	62¢	62¢	$5,764	$5,772	+$7 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	58¢	56¢	$80	$78	−$2 (-3%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	31¢	30¢	$4	$4	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$2,200	+$270	+12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$294	+$215	+73%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$498	+$188	+38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$247	+$137	+56%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	31¢	$4	9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	63¢	$2,466	10h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	90¢	$509	13h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	88¢	$998	46h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$693	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	62¢	$3,364	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$498	3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$81	3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	57¢	$294	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$385	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	63¢	$148	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$91	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$8	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,853.64 · official $5,853.65 (match) · 16 history records