Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:05:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x812b…58ee other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$726 (-66%) realized −$703 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -68% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -71% what you keep after slip
Net edge-71%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$694
sports 4% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-71.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -68.4% -71.4% 0% 0% -89.1%
≤90d 3 -68.4% -71.4% 0% 0% -89.1%
all 3 -68.4% -71.4% 0% 0% -89.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -71.4% 0% -89.1%
10% -74.2% 0% -90.2%
15% -76.7% 0% -91.1%
20% -79.0% 0% -92.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -88% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -68% · $-wt -88% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$238 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$201
Realized−$703
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage20d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $139 $105 −$34 (-24%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $86 $96 +$10 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $684 −$665 -97%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $103 −$5 -5%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $45 −$45 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $31 1h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $48 9d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 9d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 9d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 9d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 9d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 9d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 9d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 9d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 9d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 9d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 9d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 9d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 9d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 9d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 9d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $98 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $45 17d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $69 18d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 18d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $59 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.23 · official $201.23 (match) · 54 history records