Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:19:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x812e…21ba
other · 92 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$1 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$178
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses32 / 58
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)90 / 92
History coverage466d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 2 History 90 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $182 $178 −$4 (-2%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $173 +$9 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $156 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $82 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $93 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $7 $0 -5%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $62 +$1 +1%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 25 $3 $0 -1%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 24 $36 −$2 -7%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $55 +$1 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $120 +$9 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $107 +$3 +3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 22 $99 −$2 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $91 +$1 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 18 $97 −$6 -6%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $88 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $48 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $2,302 −$4 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $1,051 −$4 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 12 $1,157 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $48 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $553 −$2 -0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 13 $2 $0 -7%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 12 $23 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Michael McDowell win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 11 $19 −$2 -10%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 11 $22 $0 +2%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jul 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jul 10 $14 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 10 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 09 $10 $0 +5%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 4–11? Jul 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 08 $2 $0 -9%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 08 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 27% −$4
politics 25% −$6
world 24% +$7
sports 15% −$4
other 6% −$1
tech 2% +$9
crypto 1% −$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $182 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $182 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $173 14h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $143 20h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $14 20h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $156 23h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 38¢ $47 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 38¢ $32 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 38¢ $3 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 38¢ $82 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 6¢ $9 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $93 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $87 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $6 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $17 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $27 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $14 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $62 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam SELL Yes 12¢ $3 49d
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam BUY Yes 12¢ $3 49d
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most SELL Yes 12¢ $34 49d
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most BUY Yes 13¢ $36 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 43% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 43% 0% -8.1%
≤90d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 39% 0% -9.5%
all 90 +1.1% -8.5% 36% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 1% -9.5%
10% -17.3% 1% -18.1%
15% -25.3% 1% -26.0%
20% -32.6% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.51 · official $177.50 (match) · 356 history records