trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤30d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -68.6% | -71.6% | 17% | 17% | -5.4% |
| all | 15 | -25.0% | -32.1% | 33% | 20% | -8.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -32.1% | 20% | -8.5% |
| 10% | -38.6% | 20% | -17.2% |
| 15% | -44.5% | 13% | -25.2% |
| 20% | -50.0% | 13% | -32.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | Yes | 41¢ | 38¢ | $140 | $128 | −$13 (-9%) |
| Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 | Over | 45¢ | 57¢ | $45 | $57 | +$12 (+27%) |
| Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Yes | 30¢ | 32¢ | $30 | $32 | +$2 (+8%) |
| Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 | Over | 25¢ | 29¢ | $25 | $29 | +$4 (+16%) |
| Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score | No | 48¢ | 18¢ | $48 | $18 | −$30 (-61%) |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | 81¢ | 92¢ | $9 | $10 | +$1 (+14%) |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 87¢ | 94¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+8%) |
| Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? | No | 58¢ | 93¢ | $1 | $2 | +$1 (+60%) |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 60¢ | 90¢ | $1 | $2 | +$1 (+51%) |
| Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? | No | 68¢ | 97¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+43%) |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | 14¢ | 6¢ | $1 | $1 | −$1 (-54%) |
| Türkiye to score first vs. Paraguay? | Yes | 57¢ | 0¢ | $57 | $0 | −$57 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 18 | $55 | −$54 | -99% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? | May 10 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? | May 10 | $56 | −$56 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? | May 10 | $21 | −$21 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? | May 10 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? | May 10 | $186 | +$164 | +88% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Mar 06 | $98 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Mar 06 | $250 | −$6 | -2% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Mar 05 | $195 | +$6 | +3% |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Mar 04 | $184 | +$4 | +2% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele | Mar 03 | $200 | −$6 | -3% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | Mar 01 | $2 | $0 | +25% |
| Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? | Mar 01 | $2 | +$3 | +212% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 14 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Jan 10 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |