Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:25:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
81 0x812e…8189 sports 51 markets active 2d ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$823 (-10%) realized −$419 · open −$404
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%24W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$3,096now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$319
14 days+$560
30 days−$206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$594
sports 36% −$16
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +30.9% +18.4% 75% 75% +60.0%
≤30d 39 +5.3% -4.7% 62% 62% -14.0%
≤90d 39 +5.3% -4.7% 62% 62% -14.0%
all 39 +5.3% -4.7% 62% 62% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 62% -14.0%
10% -13.9% 62% -22.3%
15% -22.2% 62% -29.8%
20% -29.8% 46% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$126 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$3,096
Realized−$419
Unrealized−$404
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses24 / 15
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions5
Markets (closed)39 / 51
History coverage26d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $500 $905 +$405 (+81%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1,000 $820 −$180 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $1,000 $770 −$230 (-23%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $500 $310 −$190 (-38%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $500 $292 −$208 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $101 +$53 +52%
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $203 +$206 +101%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$63 +124%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $71 −$70 -99%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $172 +$126 +73%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $199 −$198 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $101 +$74 +73%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$65 +65%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $131 +$72 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $121 −$120 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $108 +$58 +54%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $51 +$68 +134%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $51 +$20 +40%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $101 +$36 +36%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $35 −$35 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $66 +$72 +109%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $101 +$57 +57%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $658 −$651 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 03 $10 +$4 +38%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $10 +$7 +70%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $11 +$12 +105%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $20 +$8 +42%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $20 +$15 +73%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $20 +$14 +67%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 03 $50 +$24 +48%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 03 $51 +$39 +78%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 02 $41 −$40 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $412 −$400 -97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $499 +$462 +92%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $183 −$180 -98%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 May 27 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Panama win BUY 32¢ $153 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 AND France leading at halftime? AND Will J BUY 57¢ $198 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 AND Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Fra BUY 40¢ $112 2d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 30¢ $10 6d
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $203 7d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 44¢ $51 7d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 29¢ $101 7d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $71 7d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 7d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 56¢ $25 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 57¢ $172 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $172 8d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 71¢ $199 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 8d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 38¢ $102 9d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $101 9d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $101 10d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 60¢ $101 10d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? AND BUY 60¢ $131 11d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $131 11d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $121 11d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 66¢ $68 11d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 62¢ $40 11d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $35 11d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $51 11d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 73¢ $101 11d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $51 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $66 12d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Aurora Gaming 63¢ $101 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,096.43 · official $3,096.43 (match) · 117 history records