Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:59:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
81 0x812e…6f3c sports 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$267 (+14%) realized +$267 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%16W / 13L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$423
other 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -8.0% -16.8% 55% 55% +11.3%
≤30d 29 -8.0% -16.8% 55% 55% +11.3%
≤90d 29 -8.0% -16.8% 55% 55% +11.3%
all 29 -8.0% -16.8% 55% 55% +11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 55% +11.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 48% +0.6%
15% -32.0% 45% -9.1%
20% -38.7% 28% -18.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$19 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.7 per $1 lost it wins $2.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$267
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses16 / 13
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage4d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $361 +$162 +45%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Jun 22 $20 +$3 +17%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $33 +$21 +62%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $41 −$4 -11%
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $10 −$1 -6%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $16 +$7 +44%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $32 +$15 +47%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $85 +$35 +41%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $69 +$51 +74%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $82 −$82 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 4 Winner Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 3 Winner Jun 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $540 +$136 +25%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $201 +$29 +14%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $15 −$12 -82%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $119 +$113 +95%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $53 +$22 +41%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $25 +$34 +134%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner Jun 21 $40 +$40 +101%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $50 −$44 -89%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $27 −$27 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2 +$2 +67%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 20 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 +$2 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +62%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner SELL Grind Back 100¢ $523 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 83¢ $50 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 84¢ $50 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 71¢ $36 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 74¢ $96 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 75¢ $101 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 30¢ $28 2h
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 SELL UCAM Esports Club 60¢ $12 13h
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 SELL UCAM Esports Club 60¢ $6 13h
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 SELL UCAM Esports Club 60¢ $6 13h
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 BUY UCAM Esports Club 51¢ $8 13h
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 BUY UCAM Esports Club 51¢ $7 13h
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 BUY UCAM Esports Club 51¢ $5 13h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $54 14h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 62¢ $25 14h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 60¢ $4 14h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 60¢ $4 14h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner SELL ReThink 79¢ $1 14h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner SELL ReThink 70¢ $22 14h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner SELL ReThink 71¢ $1 15h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner SELL ReThink 71¢ $1 15h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner SELL ReThink 71¢ $1 15h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner BUY ReThink 53¢ $20 15h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner SELL ReThink 38¢ $0 15h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner SELL ReThink 33¢ $14 15h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink - Map 2 Winner BUY ReThink 45¢ $20 15h
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports - Map 2 Winner SELL Barça eSports 35¢ $0 15h
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports - Map 2 Winner SELL Barça eSports 36¢ $9 16h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner SELL L1ga Team 75¢ $11 16h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner SELL L1ga Team 75¢ $4 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records