Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:18:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x8130…5a50
crypto · 374 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$250 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$248 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$119
Realized+$248
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses217 / 145
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions11
Markets (closed)362 / 374
History coverage12d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day87.4
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 11 History 362 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$265
14 days+$248
30 days+$248
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Spirit 75¢ 74¢ $51 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jiri Lehecka 54¢ 54¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? No 77¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 63¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 61¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+64%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ 58¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Seattle Mariners 58¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 57¢ 55¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals No 83¢ 78¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $6 −$4 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -3%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 $0 -3%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $11 $0 -4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $21 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$3 +23%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +9%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +12%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +8%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +21%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +15%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $18 +$2 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $43 +$17 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 11 $4 −$1 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$9 +41%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $45 +$23 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$56 +261%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 40% −$45
sports 38% +$341
weather 17% −$28
other 6% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $5 5m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $5 13m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 51¢ $5 32m
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Jiri Lehecka 54¢ $5 47m
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Jiri Lehecka 54¢ $5 47m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $5 1h
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals BUY No 83¢ $5 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ $5 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 57¢ $5 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 75¢ $51 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $5 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $5 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 10¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 29¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $8 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $9 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $23 7h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 79¢ $5 7h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL No 75¢ $5 7h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 60¢ $10 7h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 2.5 SELL Under 80¢ $10 7h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 75¢ $10 7h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 57¢ $10 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Natus Vincere 68¢ $20 7h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 2.5 BUY Under 81¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 249 +1.1% -8.6% 61% 31% -3.0%
≤30d 362 +0.9% -8.7% 60% 30% -4.6%
≤90d 362 +0.9% -8.7% 60% 30% -4.6%
all 362 +0.9% -8.7% 60% 30% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover87.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 30% -4.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 19% -13.7%
15% -25.4% 12% -22.1%
20% -32.7% 7% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.72 · official $118.78 (match) · 1267 history records