Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:52:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x8130…3789 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$306 (-25%) realized −$288 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$290
sports 1% −$1
crypto 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +27.4% +15.3% 25% 25% -31.9%
≤30d 8 +27.4% +15.3% 25% 25% -31.9%
≤90d 8 +27.4% +15.3% 25% 25% -31.9%
all 8 +27.4% +15.3% 25% 25% -31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.3% 25% -31.9%
10% +4.2% 25% -38.4%
15% -5.8% 25% -44.4%
20% -15.1% 25% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$63 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$288
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)8 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+3%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 22¢ 2¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-93%)
Morocco leading at halftime? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $19 +$45 +234%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$12 -58%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $569 −$289 -51%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $499 −$28 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $65 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 12h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 15h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 19h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 19h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 19h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 19h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 19h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 19h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 26h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 26h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 26h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 26h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 30¢ $280 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $472 30h
Brazil leading at halftime? SELL Yes 43¢ $472 30h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $499 30h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $97 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.52 · official $59.52 (match) · 23 history records