trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | Yes | 50¢ | 54¢ | $8,789 | $9,400 | +$611 (+7%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 58¢ | 58¢ | $2,085 | $2,102 | +$18 (+1%) |
| Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $390 in June? | Yes | 42¢ | 24¢ | $657 | $373 | −$284 (-43%) |
| Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $400 in June? | Yes | 51¢ | 14¢ | $770 | $202 | −$567 (-74%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 16¢ | $26 | $24 | −$2 (-6%) |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $4 | $3 | −$1 (-23%) |
| Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in June? | Yes | 77¢ | 8¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-90%) |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | No | 72¢ | 0¢ | $360 | $0 | −$360 (-100%) |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 64¢ | 0¢ | $698 | $0 | −$698 (-100%) |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 54¢ | 0¢ | $9 | $0 | −$9 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $988 | +$1,123 | +114% |
| SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? | Jun 12 | $789 | +$202 | +26% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $9 | −$9 | -99% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $6 | +$2 | +44% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 30 | $704 | −$698 | -99% |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 30 | $1,222 | −$360 | -29% |
| Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May? | May 28 | $671 | −$275 | -41% |
| Will Google reach $355 in April? | Apr 29 | $1,035 | −$1,035 | -100% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | Apr 21 | $1,568 | −$534 | -34% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | Apr 18 | $1,300 | +$267 | +21% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +20.7% | +9.2% | 75% | 75% | +57.1% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -22.6% | -30.0% | 43% | 43% | -9.9% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -27.2% | -34.1% | 40% | 40% | -25.6% |
| all | 10 | -27.2% | -34.1% | 40% | 40% | -25.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -34.1% | 40% | -25.6% |
| 10% | -40.4% | 30% | -32.7% |
| 15% | -46.2% | 20% | -39.2% |
| 20% | -51.4% | 10% | -45.1% |