Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:29:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
81 0x8137…ccad sports 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$545 (+6%) realized +$546 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%59W / 57L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$90est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$337now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62
7 days+$46
14 days−$87
30 days+$466
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$388
other 8% +$409
crypto 3% −$107
world 2% −$93
culture 1% +$92
finance 1% −$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -2.1% -11.4% 33% 33% -3.9%
≤30d 18 +27.4% +15.3% 44% 44% +6.8%
≤90d 55 -3.6% -12.8% 40% 40% -6.1%
all 116 +5.5% -4.5% 51% 51% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 51% -3.4%
10% -13.7% 51% -12.6%
15% -22.0% 47% -21.1%
20% -29.7% 46% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$81 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$337
Realized+$546
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses59 / 57
Est. fees paid−$90
Open positions1
Markets (closed)116 / 117
History coverage129d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $102 +$138 +136%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $77 −$75 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $153 +$382 +250%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $123 −$120 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $123 +$306 +250%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 13 $306 −$285 -93%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $152 +$167 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$168 +165%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $102 +$142 +140%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $224 −$220 -98%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $153 −$150 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $72 +$220 +307%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 04 $305 +$393 +129%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $204 −$200 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $203 −$200 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $92 −$90 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $71 −$70 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 04 $127 −$125 -98%
Spread: Celtics (-7.5) May 03 $80 −$80 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-6.5) May 03 $98 +$72 +73%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $130 +$198 +152%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $153 +$213 +139%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $250 +$444 +178%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $80 −$80 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $75 −$75 -100%
CJ McCollum: Points O/U 19.5 Apr 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 19.5 Apr 26 $50 +$36 +73%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 26 $75 +$62 +82%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 25 $50 −$41 -82%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $100 +$165 +165%
Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 26.5 Apr 25 $80 +$70 +87%
Jaylen Brown: Points O/U 26.5 Apr 25 $87 −$87 -100%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Apr 24 $50 +$37 +73%
Jamal Murray: Points O/U 25.5 Apr 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 23 $46 −$45 -97%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $50 +$90 +180%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 19 $100 +$123 +123%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Stephen Curry: Points O/U 27.5 Apr 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 28.5 Apr 18 $50 +$35 +70%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 16 $53 +$45 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 22h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 22h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $77 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $153 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $204 6d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $123 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $123 12d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 40¢ $102 13d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $102 13d
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes $21 13d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $152 14d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 15d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $102 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 34¢ $71 18d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 27¢ $153 18d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 40¢ $153 18d
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 35¢ $306 19d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $291 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 24¢ $72 23d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $305 27d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 33¢ $51 37d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 35¢ $153 37d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 45¢ $203 47d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 23¢ $20 48d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 30¢ $82 48d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Lakers 23¢ $92 49d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Cavaliers 50¢ $71 50d
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) BUY 76ers 50¢ $127 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $336.74 · official $336.74 (match) · 223 history records