Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:22:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x813b…ca44 crypto 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$382 (-22%) realized −$377 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +118% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +98% what you keep after slip
Net edge+98%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$83
30 days−$400
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$613
other 7% +$91
sports 5% +$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+97.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 12 +118.4% +97.6% 25% 25% -31.4%
≤90d 12 +118.4% +97.6% 25% 25% -31.4%
all 12 +118.4% +97.6% 25% 25% -31.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +97.6% 25% -31.4%
10% +78.7% 25% -38.0%
15% +61.4% 25% -44.0%
20% +45.6% 25% -49.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +118% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +300% → late -63% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$76 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$377
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage27d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 42¢ 29¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 06 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 06 $31 +$18 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Gamers Club L Jun 04 $6 −$6 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,426 −$530 -37%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 26 $70 +$139 +199%
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 26 $9 −$8 -96%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 26 $26 −$25 -95%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $27 +$128 +480%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 42¢ $15 25m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 80¢ $111 35m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 28¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 12d
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Gamers Club L BUY MIBR Academy 27¢ $5 14d
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Gamers Club L BUY MIBR Academy 24¢ $1 14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $130 18d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $762 18d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $766 20d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $430 20d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $234 20d
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL No 91¢ $55 23d
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 35¢ $22 24d
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 87¢ $154 24d
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 24d
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 24d
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY No 22¢ $5 24d
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 24d
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 24d
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 24d
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 24d
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY No 17¢ $22 24d
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 3¢ $5 24d
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 28¢ $32 24d
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.