Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:47:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x813d…5e42 crypto 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,338 (-61%) realized −$1,358 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate57%31W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$36
14 days−$36
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$1,330
other 11% −$28
sports 6% +$22
politics 1% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +43.8% +30.1% 67% 67% -33.7%
≤30d 3 +43.8% +30.1% 67% 67% -33.7%
≤90d 53 +2.1% -7.6% 58% 47% -24.4%
all 54 +0.2% -9.3% 57% 46% -67.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 46% -67.9%
10% -18.0% 28% -71.0%
15% -25.9% 24% -73.8%
20% -33.2% 17% -76.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$67 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$1,358
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses31 / 23
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage473d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 83¢ 100¢ $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $57 +$9 +16%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $10 +$22 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 15 $154 −$152 -99%
LoL: paiN Gaming vs FURIA Esports - Game 1 Winner Apr 15 $50 −$39 -78%
Wuning 2: Linang Xiao vs Blake Ellis Apr 15 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 15 $121 +$20 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 13 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 13 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 13 $5 −$4 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 13 $5 +$10 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 13 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 13 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 13 $20 +$8 +41%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 13 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 13 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 13 $15 +$1 +6%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Apr 13 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 13 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 13 $11 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 13 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 13 $2 +$2 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 13 $11 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 13 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 13 $21 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 13 $1 +$2 +172%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner Apr 13 $1 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of t Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in second place in the first round of the 2 Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $10 +$19 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Magic vs. Celtics Apr 13 $10 +$51 +509%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 12 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 12 $10 +$5 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 12 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 12 $10 +$3 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $67 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $26 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $31 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $32 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $154 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $141 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $121 66d
LoL: paiN Gaming vs FURIA Esports - Game 1 Winner SELL paiN Gaming 11¢ $11 68d
LoL: paiN Gaming vs FURIA Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY FURIA Esports 70¢ $20 68d
LoL: paiN Gaming vs FURIA Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY paiN Gaming 30¢ $27 68d
LoL: paiN Gaming vs FURIA Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY paiN Gaming 30¢ $3 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $20 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $20 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $5 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $6 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $15 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 68d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 28¢ $11 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.42 · official $120.42 (match) · 143 history records