Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:56:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x813e…d482 crypto 1110 markets active 3h ago coverage 43d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$74 (-4%) realized −$75 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate66%727W / 381L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day58.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$84
sports 3% −$9
other 3% −$6
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -20.5% -28.1% 43% 43% -27.4%
≤30d 697 -7.2% -16.0% 66% 41% -17.3%
≤90d 1108 -6.5% -15.4% 66% 31% -14.0%
all 1108 -6.5% -15.4% 66% 31% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 31% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 21% -22.3%
15% -30.9% 13% -29.8%
20% -37.7% 10% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses727 / 381
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1108 / 1110
History coverage43d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day58.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 118 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -15%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +198%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +55%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -91%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +60%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 20h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 26h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 31h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 32h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 35h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 42h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 46h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.24 · official $9.24 (match) · 3071 history records