Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:10:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
81 0x813e…de87 crypto 430 markets active 11d ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate35%152W / 278L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$64
sports 6% +$67
other 5% −$8
weather 3% −$17
politics 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
tech 0% −$2
world 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 89 -2.2% -11.5% 28% 28% +3.3%
≤90d 160 -14.1% -22.3% 26% 26% +0.8%
all 430 -16.2% -24.1% 35% 23% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.1% 23% -10.1%
10% -31.4% 21% -18.7%
15% -38.0% 20% -26.6%
20% -44.1% 20% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses152 / 278
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)430 / 430
History coverage244d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 430 Trades
no open positions (147 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 +$2 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 +$5 +500%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$4 +196%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +86%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +62%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +146%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -73%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +276%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +124%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +129%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +192%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$3 +300%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +109%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +197%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +197%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 9? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 9? Jun 12 $1 +$6 +585%
France leading at halftime? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +128%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 19? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 10d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 12d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 12d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 12d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 12d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 12d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes $0 12d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $1 12d
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 13d
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 13d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 13d
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 13d
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 13d
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 13d
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 13d
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 13d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 14d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 14d
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 14d
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 14d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 15d
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 756 history records