Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:00:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x813f…7db0 world 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 391d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate36%13W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% +$1
other 19% −$15
crypto 4% +$1
economics 2% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.4% -8.3% 33% 11% -9.1%
≤30d 18 +0.5% -9.1% 39% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 18 +0.5% -9.1% 39% 6% -9.5%
all 36 -0.8% -10.2% 36% 3% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 3% -10.9%
10% -18.8% 0% -19.4%
15% -26.7% 0% -27.2%
20% -33.9% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

391d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses13 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage391d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 82¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $55 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $16 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $2 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $82 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $53 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $56 +$2 +4%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $35 −$1 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $31 −$1 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $91 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $58 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $19 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 06 $28 $0 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $57 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Jan 31 $38 −$16 -41%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 24 $21 +$1 +3%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jul 05 $7 −$1 -10%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 04 $3 $0 -1%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jul 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 04 $1 $0 +7%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 04 $5 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 02 $15 $0 +2%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 02 $3 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 27 $24 +$1 +2%
Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair? May 23 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 80¢ $46 2m
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $17 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $30 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $50 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $50 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $52 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $52 28h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $3 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $54 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $58 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $5 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $32 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $17 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $53 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $26 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $14 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $12 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $52 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.78 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records