Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:03:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
81 0x8146…fe66 sports 285 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$600 (+8%) realized +$609 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%78W / 161L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$481now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$175
7 days−$575
14 days−$171
30 days−$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% +$911
sports 21% +$156
other 17% −$203
world 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 145 +0.2% -9.4% 28% 28% -23.0%
≤30d 159 +13.0% +2.2% 33% 33% -13.3%
≤90d 238 +4.5% -5.5% 32% 31% +1.2%
all 239 +5.4% -4.6% 33% 31% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 31% +1.5%
10% -13.7% 31% -8.2%
15% -22.1% 31% -17.1%
20% -29.7% 31% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$22 · ×2.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$481
Realized+$609
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses78 / 161
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions8
Markets (closed)239 / 285
History coverage98d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $150 $171 +$21 (+14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 18¢ 18¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $25 $43 +$18 (+71%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-17%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $40 $35 −$5 (-12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $50 $26 −$24 (-48%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $25 $18 −$7 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $210 +$357 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$113 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 23 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 23 $106 −$28 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $53 −$47 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 23 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $53 +$153 +290%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 23 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $27 +$23 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $53 −$50 -95%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$20 +196%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $10 +$16 +158%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $186 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $212 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $78 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $53 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $53 3h
Luis Díaz: 2+ goals AND Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals AND Harry Kane: 2+ BUY 3¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $53 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $53 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $53 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $53 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $45 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $53 4h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $51 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Will Portugal w BUY 40¢ $51 4h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL 84¢ $30 15h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 15h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $10 15h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND Jordan vs. A BUY 13¢ $10 15h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Jordan vs. Algeria en BUY 19¢ $10 15h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $10 18h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 21¢ $10 18h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: Both Team BUY 33¢ $10 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $480.54 · official $560.54 · 543 history records