Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:04:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
81 0x814d…65ba crypto 15 markets active 13d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+7%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate73%11W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 15 +1.0% -8.6% 73% 33% -8.8%
≤90d 15 +1.0% -8.6% 73% 33% -8.8%
all 15 +1.0% -8.6% 73% 33% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 33% -8.8%
10% -17.3% 20% -17.5%
15% -25.3% 20% -25.5%
20% -32.6% 20% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses11 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records