Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:21:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
81 0x814f…ddaa weather 44 markets active 2d ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$113 (+43%) realized +$113 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate82%36W / 8L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$100
politics 39% +$13
other 5% −$1
weather 5% $0
economics 3% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +0.3% -9.2% 95% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 30 +0.8% -8.8% 97% 3% -2.4%
≤90d 33 -1.4% -10.8% 94% 6% -2.0%
all 44 +3.0% -6.8% 82% 16% +29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 16% +29.5%
10% -15.7% 11% +17.1%
15% -23.9% 11% +5.8%
20% -31.3% 11% -4.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.12 per $1 lost it wins $12.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses36 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage144d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-Jun Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $30 +$5 +17%
Blue Jackets vs. Flyers Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $56 +$5 +9%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 26 $16 +$3 +20%
Rockets vs. Bulls Mar 24 $2 +$6 +317%
Jets vs. Rangers Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Raptors vs. Suns: O/U 220.5 Mar 23 $106 +$98 +92%
Suns vs. Bucks Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Magic vs. Heat Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Pistons vs. Raptors Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Magic vs. Hawks Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Panthers vs. Kraken Mar 16 $1 +$2 +113%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Mar 14 $1 +$2 +203%
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Mar 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$85 in January? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-Jun BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? BUY No 99¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 9d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C or below on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 9d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $2 9d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $2 9d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $2 9d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 198 history records