Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:43:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x814f…5bef
crypto · 323 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$432 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$585 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$585
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses96 / 227
Open positions0
Markets (closed)323 / 323
History coverage38d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 0 History 323 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days−$81
14 days−$81
30 days−$378
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$12 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$15 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 16 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 16 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 16 $12 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 16 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 16 $21 +$13 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 16 $21 +$12 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 16 $21 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 16 $21 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 16 $31 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 16 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 16 $26 +$11 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 16 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 16 $42 +$30 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 16 $21 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 16 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 16 $31 −$8 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$560
other 1% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-36.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -61.3% -65.0% 24% 18% -55.7%
≤30d 108 -48.1% -53.0% 28% 24% -32.5%
≤90d 323 -30.2% -36.8% 30% 25% -19.5%
all 323 -30.2% -36.8% 30% 25% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.8% 25% -19.5%
10% ← realistic here -42.9% 22% -27.2%
15% -48.4% 17% -34.2%
20% -53.4% 14% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 913 history records