Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:01:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
81 0x8152…bfda other 264 markets active 12h ago coverage 200d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 200d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$64,145 (+20%) realized +$59,484 · open +$4,661
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate65%143W / 78L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$1,242per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$39,402now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 200d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 30% +$78,585
other 25% +$8,495
world 14% −$792
politics 10% +$3,914
finance 7% +$6,894
crypto 6% +$689
culture 4% +$3,644
tech 4% +$3,456
sports 1% +$540
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -63.8% -67.3% 25% 25% -83.0%
≤30d 27 -35.7% -41.9% 41% 26% -65.0%
≤90d 51 -2.4% -11.7% 63% 51% -7.5%
all 221 +26.5% +14.4% 65% 50% +21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.4% 50% +21.5%
10% ← realistic here +3.5% 39% +9.9%
15% -6.5% 29% -0.7%
20% -15.7% 22% -10.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,325) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +53% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,102 vs −$729 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.77 per $1 lost it wins $2.77
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$39,402
Realized+$59,484
Unrealized+$4,661
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses143 / 78
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions43
Markets (closed)221 / 264
History coverage200d ⚠
Avg bet$1,242
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 43 History 221 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 75¢ 81¢ $5,260 $5,704 +$444 (+8%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 71¢ 100¢ $3,723 $5,269 +$1,546 (+42%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 59¢ 100¢ $2,454 $4,156 +$1,701 (+69%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 48¢ 66¢ $2,580 $3,543 +$963 (+37%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 73¢ 100¢ $2,569 $3,498 +$929 (+36%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 50¢ 99¢ $801 $1,580 +$779 (+97%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 55¢ 57¢ $1,371 $1,437 +$67 (+5%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 68¢ 100¢ $934 $1,377 +$443 (+47%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 44¢ 86¢ $705 $1,367 +$662 (+94%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 95¢ 100¢ $946 $998 +$52 (+6%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $895 $898 +$2 (+0%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes 47¢ 76¢ $528 $842 +$313 (+59%)
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? Yes 65¢ 37¢ $1,257 $712 −$544 (-43%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 69¢ $660 $695 +$35 (+5%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $656 $692 +$36 (+5%)
Insurrection Act invoked by June 30? No 50¢ 100¢ $311 $622 +$312 (+100%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 99¢ $434 $519 +$84 (+19%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 94¢ 100¢ $468 $499 +$30 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 96¢ 100¢ $478 $498 +$19 (+4%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July? No 90¢ 99¢ $450 $493 +$43 (+10%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 78¢ 86¢ $390 $432 +$42 (+11%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $446 $430 −$15 (-3%)
Will Solana reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Yes 60¢ 86¢ $300 $428 +$128 (+42%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 70¢ 81¢ $350 $407 +$57 (+16%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 53¢ 62¢ $265 $308 +$42 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 27 $407 +$196 +48%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Jun 27 $988 −$988 -100%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 23 $460 −$460 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jun 23 $505 −$505 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $700B and $800B at market close on Jun 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 23 $1,135 −$1,135 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 23 $1,492 −$1,492 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $283 +$116 +41%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 22 $210 +$16 +8%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $581 +$277 +48%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $474 +$26 +6%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 20 $531 +$124 +23%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 20 $147 +$7 +5%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $1,213 −$1,182 -97%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 19 $161 −$9 -6%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $541 −$525 -97%
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 202 Jun 08 $135 +$340 +252%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Jun 08 $943 +$57 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Jun 08 $587 +$442 +75%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Jun 08 $1,621 +$361 +22%
Will MrBeast hit 477 million subscribers by April 30? Jun 08 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more? Jun 08 $281 −$281 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Jun 08 $482 −$482 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 08 $562 −$562 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Jun 08 $1,185 −$1,185 -100%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? Jun 08 $2,905 −$2,905 -100%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Jun 08 $2,950 −$2,950 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 29 $1,243 +$849 +68%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 29 $3,727 +$1,273 +34%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $950 +$1,853 +195%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Apr 02 $1,602 +$307 +19%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Apr 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 02 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 02 $992 −$568 -57%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Apr 02 $847 +$197 +23%
Will Affirm Holdings (AFRM) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $485 +$16 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 02 $115 +$89 +77%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? Apr 02 $587 +$320 +54%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31? Apr 02 $447 +$475 +106%
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? Apr 02 $710 +$290 +41%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 02 $1,083 +$588 +54%
People's Bank of China rate cut by March 31? Apr 02 $1,249 +$159 +13%
ICE shooter charged by March 31? Apr 02 $1,065 +$388 +36%
Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 Apr 02 $818 +$758 +93%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $1,945 +$128 +7%
Insurrection Act invoked by March 31? Apr 02 $1,623 +$685 +42%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 02 $1,496 +$1,668 +112%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Apr 02 $2,782 +$822 +30%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 02 $3,931 +$806 +20%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 02 $3,789 +$1,542 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in July? BUY No 90¢ $35 11h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July? BUY No 90¢ $450 24h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY No 10¢ $7 38h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY No 10¢ $1 38h
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $57 40h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? BUY No 80¢ $63 44h
Will Trump and Putin not meet? BUY Yes 63¢ $89 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY No 10¢ $12 2d
Will Trump and Putin not meet? BUY Yes 64¢ $320 2d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY No 58¢ $295 2d
Will Trump and Putin not meet? BUY Yes 63¢ $37 2d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? BUY No 82¢ $164 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 70¢ $350 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $265 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $603 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 81¢ $1,635 2d
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by Dece BUY Yes 18¢ $3 3d
Will Solana reach $80 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $300 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY No 33¢ $46 5d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY No 33¢ $15 5d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY No 33¢ $4 5d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY No 33¢ $2 5d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY No 34¢ $40 5d
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026? BUY No 71¢ $22 5d
Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year? BUY No 78¢ $157 5d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $899 5d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $2,249 5d
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? SELL No 85¢ $133 8d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $12 9d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39,402.03 · official $39,402.70 (match) · 3500 history records