Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:06:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
81 0x8156…1e76 crypto 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$288 (+117%) realized +$288 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +220% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +147% what you keep after slip
Net edge+147%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$281
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+189.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +220.5% +189.9% 62% 38% +90.8%
≤30d 16 +220.5% +189.9% 62% 38% +90.8%
≤90d 16 +220.5% +189.9% 62% 38% +90.8%
all 16 +220.5% +189.9% 62% 38% +90.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +189.9% 38% +90.8%
10% ← realistic here +162.2% 38% +72.6%
15% +136.9% 38% +55.9%
20% +113.6% 19% +40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +114% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +220% · $-wt +114% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +445% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$8 · ×4.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.98 per $1 lost it wins $6.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$288
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $104 +$97 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$9 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 25 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 25 $6 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 25 $0 +$16 +3975%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $11 +$201 +1880%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.83 · official $20.83 (match) · 36 history records