Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:12:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x8156…d978
sports · 21 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$199 -36%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$210 · open +$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$31
Realized−$210
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses3 / 14
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)17 / 21
History coverage2d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 3 History 17 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$210
7 days−$210
14 days−$210
30 days−$210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Over 23¢ 44¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+93%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 32¢ 17¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-47%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster 25¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Natus Vincere 60¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner KT Rolster 22¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $101 +$42 +42%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -97%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $31 −$6 -21%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$23 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $40 +$21 +52%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$12 -76%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$5 -48%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 74% −$151
other 26% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 40¢ $10 45m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $10 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $101 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 $1 9h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 28¢ $20 10h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE $0 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL TheMongolz 12¢ $2 11h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 38¢ $5 11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 34¢ $5 11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 42¢ $22 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 46¢ $25 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 41¢ $5 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $5 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $20 13h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 14h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-1 BUY 53¢ $25 14h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 22¢ $10 15h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 25¢ $10 15h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes $5 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes $3 26h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 27h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 28h
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 19¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 21¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-65.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -61.9% -65.6% 18% 18% -47.8%
≤30d 17 -61.9% -65.6% 18% 18% -47.8%
≤90d 17 -61.9% -65.6% 18% 18% -47.8%
all 17 -61.9% -65.6% 18% 18% -47.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -65.6% 18% -47.8%
10% -68.9% 18% -52.8%
15% -71.9% 18% -57.3%
20% -74.6% 12% -61.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.92 · official $30.92 (match) · 45 history records