Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:14:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

81
0x815d…8648
crypto · 65 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$4,639 -29%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,868 · open −$969
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4,738
Realized−$3,868
Unrealized−$969
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses37 / 21
Open positions7
Markets (closed)58 / 65
History coverage94d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 7 History 58 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$53
14 days−$117
30 days−$5,786
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? $140 11¢ 12¢ $1,098 $1,267 +$170 (+15%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Yes 52¢ 92¢ $605 $1,073 +$468 (+77%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $1,112 $1,060 −$52 (-5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 40¢ 16¢ $1,933 $794 −$1,139 (-59%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 20¢ 28¢ $285 $385 +$100 (+35%)
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $560 $151 −$408 (-73%)
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $115 $8 −$107 (-93%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 25-31? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $363 $0 −$363 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 18-24? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $84 $0 −$84 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $389 $0 −$389 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 16? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? 90k 49¢ 0¢ $5,279 $0 −$5,279 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $173 $0 −$173 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $96 $0 −$96 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $62 −$59 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $58 −$55 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 04 $4 +$6 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? May 29 $5,512 −$5,279 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? May 26 $181 −$173 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 25-31? May 25 $21 −$20 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$4,837
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $11 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $11 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $8 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $8 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $6 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $15 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $10 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $15 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $0 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $11 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-33.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -1.8% -11.1% 90% 5% -25.7%
≤30d 53 -23.4% -30.7% 68% 6% -96.2%
≤90d 58 -26.5% -33.5% 64% 7% -46.6%
all 58 -26.5% -33.5% 64% 7% -46.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.5% 7% -46.6%
10% -39.9% 5% -51.7%
15% -45.7% 5% -56.4%
20% -51.0% 5% -60.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,738.06 · official $4,738.43 (match) · 223 history records