Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:52:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x815d…5193 crypto 418 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$290 (-3%) realized −$290 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%217W / 201L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day38.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$422
14 days−$667
30 days−$708
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$747
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -9.8% -18.4% 44% 39% -19.6%
≤30d 364 -2.6% -11.9% 53% 50% -15.3%
≤90d 418 -3.4% -12.6% 52% 49% -15.5%
all 418 -3.4% -12.6% 52% 49% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 49% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 46% -23.6%
15% -28.6% 34% -31.0%
20% -35.6% 19% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$17 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$290
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses217 / 201
Open positions0
Markets (closed)418 / 418
History coverage37d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day38.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 418 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$10 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$6 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$8 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$11 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$6 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$7 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$6 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$10 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$4 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$17 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$12 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$11 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$28 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $51 −$35 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$27 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $46 −$27 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$17 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$13 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$16 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$11 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$37 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$25 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $51 −$26 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $41 −$22 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $41 −$22 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$11 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$16 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $41 −$22 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$18 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $7 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $17 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $3 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1422 history records