Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:48:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
81 0x815d…28bc other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$200 (-49%) realized −$198 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -70% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -73% what you keep after slip
Net edge-73%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$210
sports 25% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-72.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -69.8% -72.7% 0% 0% -72.3%
≤30d 3 -69.8% -72.7% 0% 0% -72.3%
≤90d 3 -69.8% -72.7% 0% 0% -72.3%
all 3 -69.8% -72.7% 0% 0% -72.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -72.7% 0% -72.3%
10% -75.3% 0% -74.9%
15% -77.7% 0% -77.3%
20% -79.9% 0% -79.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -69% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -70% · $-wt -69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$70 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$198
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage2d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 −$10 -10%
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 19¢ $93 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 2h
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.92 · official $97.92 (match) · 5 history records