Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:26:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
81 0x815f…1eef sports 1314 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (138 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$34,365 (+4%) realized +$31,705 · open +$2,660
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%672W / 534L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$649per market
Trades / day138.2pace
Fees−$11,824est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$23,111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$158,343
other 1% +$3,099
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (138 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 588 -19.1% -26.8% 41% 41% -30.3%
≤30d 1206 +8.1% -2.2% 56% 55% -2.1%
≤90d 1206 +8.1% -2.2% 56% 55% -2.1%
all 1206 +8.1% -2.2% 56% 55% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover138.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.2% 55% -2.1%
10% -11.5% 54% -11.5%
15% ← realistic here -20.1% 53% -20.0%
20% -27.9% 44% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$919) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +34% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$549 vs −$574 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$23,111
Realized+$31,705
Unrealized+$2,660
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses672 / 534
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$11,824
Open positions33
Markets (closed)1206 / 1314
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$649
Trades / day138.2
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 1206 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brasov: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Franco Roncadelli Franco Roncadelli 50¢ 100¢ $884 $1,766 +$883 (+100%)
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Roman Safiullin 25¢ 100¢ $436 $1,745 +$1,308 (+300%)
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart Jelena Ostapenko 66¢ 56¢ $1,811 $1,519 −$292 (-16%)
Wimbledon WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Tatjana Maria Tatjana Maria 57¢ 100¢ $731 $1,282 +$551 (+75%)
Wimbledon ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Luciano Darderi Luciano Darderi 37¢ 36¢ $1,163 $1,103 −$59 (-5%)
Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Anastasia Potapova Anastasia Potapova 56¢ 56¢ $1,026 $1,035 +$9 (+1%)
Milan: Alex Barrena vs Hugo Dellien Alex Barrena 30¢ 100¢ $297 $989 +$692 (+233%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 57¢ 60¢ $946 $987 +$41 (+4%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 3.5 Corners Under 50¢ 54¢ $890 $953 +$62 (+7%)
Wimbledon WTA: Anastasia Gasanova vs Emiliana Arango Emiliana Arango 51¢ 50¢ $882 $873 −$9 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Under 58¢ 57¢ $868 $860 −$7 (-1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Hamad Medjedovic vs Sebastian Ofner Hamad Medjedovic 51¢ 55¢ $793 $847 +$54 (+7%)
Wimbledon WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Shuai Zhang Bianca Andreescu 61¢ 44¢ $1,122 $818 −$303 (-27%)
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner UCAM Esports Club 41¢ 46¢ $693 $778 +$85 (+12%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 46¢ 46¢ $658 $665 +$7 (+1%)
Valorant: Mandatory vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A Beşiktaş Esports 35¢ 36¢ $637 $664 +$27 (+4%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $601 $595 −$5 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Corners Under 45¢ 44¢ $572 $565 −$6 (-1%)
Valorant: Mandatory vs Beşiktaş Esports - Map 1 Winner Beşiktaş Esports 40¢ 40¢ $546 $546 +$0 (+0%)
Valorant: Misa Esports vs Team Liquid Academy (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group D Team Liquid Academy 47¢ 46¢ $551 $533 −$18 (-3%)
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie Michael Zheng 53¢ 30¢ $924 $532 −$392 (-42%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 44¢ 44¢ $454 $448 −$5 (-1%)
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C UCAM Esports Club 44¢ 44¢ $440 $435 −$5 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Netherlands O/U 4.5 Corners Under 46¢ 46¢ $411 $411 +$0 (+0%)
Map Handicap: FKS (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5) UCAM Esports Club 69¢ 72¢ $373 $389 +$16 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 464 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 29 $328 −$328 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 29 $916 −$916 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $507 −$507 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Jun 29 $491 −$491 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 29 $52 −$52 -100%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-10.5) Jun 29 $142 −$142 -100%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 Jun 29 $1,155 −$1,155 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5 Jun 29 $322 −$322 -100%
Will Togo vs. Benin end in a draw? Jun 29 $205 −$205 -100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 29 $657 −$657 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 29 $819 −$819 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 29 $66 −$66 -100%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) Jun 29 $328 −$328 -100%
Will Atlético Nacional vs. CDPJuniorFC end in a draw? Jun 29 $291 −$291 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5 Jun 29 $287 −$287 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 29 $178 −$178 -100%
Burgos vs. Granada Jun 29 $46 −$46 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 Jun 29 $328 −$328 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $700 −$700 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5 Jun 29 $291 −$291 -100%
Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $221 −$221 -100%
PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 160.5 Jun 29 $438 −$438 -100%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $189 −$189 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5 Jun 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 29 $266 −$266 -100%
Spread: Chicago Sky (-6.5) Jun 29 $87 −$87 -100%
Modena: Jeline Vandromme vs Angela Fita Boluda Jun 29 $267 −$267 -100%
Ecuador vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $1,051 −$1,051 -100%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $94 −$94 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 29 $579 −$579 -100%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) Jun 29 $144 −$144 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 29 $1,261 −$1,261 -100%
ITF Wichita: Reese Brantmeier vs Clervie Ngounoue Jun 29 $71 −$71 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $119 −$119 -100%
Cattolica: Michele Ribecai vs Franco Agamenone Jun 29 $614 −$614 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 29 $1,052 −$1,052 -100%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-12.5) Jun 29 $322 −$322 -100%
ITF Brasilia: Thaisa Grana Pedretti vs Maria Jose Sanchez Uribe Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 29 $181 −$181 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 29 $895 −$895 -100%
Washington Spirit vs. Seattle Reign FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $188 −$188 -100%
COD Meknès vs. Olympic Dcheira: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $665 −$665 -100%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 29 $740 −$740 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals Jun 29 $838 −$838 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? Jun 29 $628 −$628 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 Jun 29 $813 −$813 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $513 −$513 -100%
Will Romania vs. Wales end in a draw? Jun 29 $188 −$188 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Pl Jun 29 $399 −$399 -100%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 29 $622 −$622 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brasov: Henri Squire vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly BUY Gilles Arnaud Bailly 44¢ $330 0m
Wimbledon WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Shuai Zhang BUY Shuai Zhang 59¢ $69 4m
Wimbledon ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Luciano Darderi BUY Luciano Darderi 38¢ $11 8m
Wimbledon ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Luciano Darderi BUY Luciano Darderi 38¢ $195 8m
Wimbledon ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Luciano Darderi BUY Luciano Darderi 38¢ $600 8m
Wimbledon ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Luciano Darderi BUY Luciano Darderi 38¢ $104 8m
Wimbledon ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Luciano Darderi BUY Luciano Darderi 38¢ $41 8m
Wimbledon ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Luciano Darderi BUY Luciano Darderi 35¢ $217 11m
Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Anastasia Potapova BUY Anastasia Potapova 56¢ $1,039 13m
Valorant: Misa Esports vs Team Liquid Academy (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Team Liquid Academy 47¢ $559 13m
Valorant: Mandatory vs Beşiktaş Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Beşiktaş Esports 40¢ $556 14m
Map Handicap: FKS (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5) BUY UCAM Esports Club 69¢ $376 14m
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY UCAM Esports Club 44¢ $448 14m
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie BUY Michael Zheng 53¢ $937 28m
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart BUY Jelena Ostapenko 66¢ $77 47m
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart BUY Jelena Ostapenko 66¢ $1,419 47m
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart BUY Jelena Ostapenko 67¢ $333 48m
Wimbledon WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Shuai Zhang BUY Bianca Andreescu 61¢ $1,135 56m
Ostapenko vs. Dart: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 51¢ $83 1h
Ostapenko vs. Dart: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 51¢ $44 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Hamad Medjedovic vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Hamad Medjedovic 51¢ $804 1h
Brasov: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Franco Roncadelli BUY Franco Roncadelli 50¢ $897 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Ann Li vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Ann Li 40¢ $413 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 57¢ $741 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 44¢ $461 1h
Milan: Alex Barrena vs Hugo Dellien BUY Alex Barrena 30¢ $303 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Darja Semenistaja BUY Antonia Ruzic 64¢ $208 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 63¢ $2 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 25¢ $446 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 31¢ $186 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,110.51 · official $24,013.56 · 3500 history records