Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:22:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
81 0x8161…9093 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$222 (+14%) realized +$226 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate94%15W / 1L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$535now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$198
30 days+$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$4
sports 35% +$215
crypto 16% $0
economics 2% $0
world 2% $0
tech 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +36.3% +23.3% 50% 50% +15.3%
≤90d 10 +13.7% +2.9% 90% 20% +12.2%
all 16 +8.7% -1.6% 94% 12% +9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 12% +9.2%
10% -11.1% 12% -1.3%
15% -19.6% 12% -10.8%
20% -27.5% 12% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$198 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$535
Realized+$226
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses15 / 1
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage178d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $540 $535 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $200 −$198 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $174 +$300 +172%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $182 +$113 +62%
Bill Clinton charged by March 31? May 07 $8 $0 +1%
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru May 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m May 07 $16 $0 +0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by February 28? May 07 $21 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 9? May 07 $259 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese Feb 05 $13 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 05 $18 $0 +1%
Will Amazon reach $320 in January? Feb 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast hit 500 Million subscribers by January 31? Feb 05 $31 $0 +0%
Jimmy Lai released by January 31? Feb 05 $41 $0 +0%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? Jan 09 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $535.30 · official $535.30 (match) · 33 history records