Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:50:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x8163…25aa crypto 944 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate81%768W / 175L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day35.1pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$14
14 days+$0
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$15
other 8% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 287 +1.1% -8.6% 91% 43% -8.5%
≤30d 943 -1.0% -10.5% 81% 55% -9.9%
≤90d 943 -1.0% -10.5% 81% 55% -9.9%
all 943 -1.0% -10.5% 81% 55% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 55% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 26% -18.5%
15% -26.8% 12% -26.4%
20% -34.0% 5% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses768 / 175
Open positions1
Markets (closed)943 / 944
History coverage28d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day35.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 943 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 73¢ 82¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 158 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.12 · official $2.58 · 1757 history records