Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:30:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x8164…7564 politics 183 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$991 (+0%) realized +$991 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate17%31W / 151L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$1,310per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$21
14 days−$44
30 days−$187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$128
other 42% +$146
sports 9% +$937
economics 3% −$6
culture 2% −$5
world 1% $0
tech 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$3
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 58 -2.1% -11.4% 9% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 113 +1.9% -7.8% 9% 5% -9.1%
all 182 +2.3% -7.4% 17% 12% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 12% -9.2%
10% -16.3% 11% -17.9%
15% -24.4% 9% -25.8%
20% -31.8% 7% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,932) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$7 · ×9.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized+$991
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses31 / 151
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)182 / 183
History coverage160d
Avg bet$1,310
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $142 $142 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $1,533 −$2 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $270 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $1,746 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $2,027 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $267 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,037 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $2,201 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $840 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $2,128 −$2 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $683 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $3,794 −$4 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $1,853 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,041 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $623 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $144 +$2 +1%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,999 −$3 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,571 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $792 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $3,571 −$5 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $4,023 −$5 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2,944 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $852 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,338 −$4 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,904 −$4 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $768 −$1 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $60 +$84 +140%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $2,841 −$4 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $74 +$32 +44%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $548 −$1 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $3,235 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $3,745 −$4 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $1,071 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,271 −$2 -0%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 02 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $322 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $375 +$2 +1%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,376 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $1,830 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,640 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2,078 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $430 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $3,939 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $2,326 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $928 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $410 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $3,156 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $496 43m
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $497 1h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $375 19h
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $142 20h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $375 21h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $269 24h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $270 26h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $274 2d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $275 2d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $233 2d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $233 3d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $267 4d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $267 4d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $621 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $622 5d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $856 5d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $857 5d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $838 5d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $840 5d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,027 5d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,028 6d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $682 6d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $683 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $892 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $893 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $978 7d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $979 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,039 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,041 7d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $622 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.07 · official $142.07 (match) · 661 history records