Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:31:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x8168…8439 crypto 826 markets active 2h ago coverage 177d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 176d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$450 (-3%) realized −$450 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate72%637W / 246L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$435
7 days−$561
14 days−$606
30 days−$607
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$508
sports 3% −$38
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 167 -36.7% -42.7% 52% 29% -39.0%
≤30d 195 -33.4% -39.7% 55% 32% -37.9%
≤90d 421 -20.1% -27.7% 64% 33% -22.6%
all 883 -11.1% -19.6% 72% 40% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 40% -15.1%
10% -27.3% 20% -23.2%
15% -34.3% 10% -30.6%
20% -40.7% 6% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$11 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$450
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses637 / 246
Open positions0
Markets (closed)883 / 826
History coverage177d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 883 Trades
no open positions (202 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$2 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 22, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$7 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $82 −$82 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$27 -134%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$4 -92%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -75%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$4 -148%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -71%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$2 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $7 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $71 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $6 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $7 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $4 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $3 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $2 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 3500 history records