Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:56:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
81 0x816b…d69d crypto 318 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 115d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$423 (+0%) realized +$836 · open −$413
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate78%245W / 70L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$780per market
Trades / day27.4pace
Fees−$564est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$2,352now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 116d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$1,258
crypto 38% +$2,132
other 9% +$1,255
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -12.9% -21.2% 61% 46% -15.3%
≤30d 69 -4.4% -13.5% 68% 48% -8.8%
≤90d 162 -0.0% -9.5% 73% 33% -8.7%
all 315 +0.7% -8.9% 78% 22% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 22% -7.5%
10% -17.6% 15% -16.4%
15% ← realistic here -25.6% 9% -24.5%
20% -32.9% 6% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$971) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$284 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$2,352
Realized+$836
Unrealized−$413
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses245 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$564
Open positions3
Markets (closed)315 / 318
History coverage116d ⚠
Avg bet$780
Trades / day27.4
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 315 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 85¢ 100¢ $1,326 $1,557 +$231 (+17%)
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals Miami Marlins 85¢ 98¢ $689 $794 +$105 (+15%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? No 69¢ 0¢ $750 $1 −$749 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $963 +$295 +31%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 $1,205 +$235 +20%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $3,512 +$1,005 +29%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 27 $579 +$69 +12%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 27 $707 +$241 +34%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 27 $790 +$114 +14%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 $705 +$144 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2,461 +$853 +35%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $962 +$34 +4%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 27 $456 +$44 +10%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 27 $192 +$8 +4%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $328 −$282 -86%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 26 $561 −$554 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2,052 −$1,416 -69%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,185 +$764 +64%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $294 +$471 +160%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,043 +$320 +31%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 26 $1,495 +$314 +21%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $635 +$326 +51%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 25 $83 −$81 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $1,161 +$112 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $922 −$906 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $840 −$823 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $567 −$565 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2,429 +$222 +9%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 24 $1,032 −$1,018 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $607 +$776 +128%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 24 $1,013 −$1,001 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 24 $916 −$69 -8%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $563 +$59 +10%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 24 $137 −$63 -46%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $548 +$34 +6%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 24 $1,155 −$195 -17%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 24 $753 +$206 +27%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $1,554 −$1,544 -99%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $204 −$201 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 23 $975 +$438 +45%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 23 $431 +$98 +23%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $1,609 +$438 +27%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $586 +$323 +55%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 23 $1,211 +$174 +14%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $225 −$204 -91%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 23 $661 −$652 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $320 +$160 +50%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $2,099 −$1,376 -66%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $973 +$350 +36%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $390 −$384 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,988 +$704 +24%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $206 +$164 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Miami Marlins 77¢ $47 55m
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Miami Marlins 86¢ $646 55m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 76¢ $963 57m
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 87¢ $22 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 87¢ $680 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 83¢ $33 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 84¢ $101 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 83¢ $562 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 69¢ $757 2h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Texas Rangers 87¢ $61 4h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Texas Rangers 86¢ $493 4h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Texas Rangers 82¢ $16 5h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Texas Rangers 81¢ $634 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 95¢ $1,036 21h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 75¢ $75 21h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 75¢ $0 21h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 76¢ $1,344 21h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 66¢ $1,132 21h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 89¢ $89 22h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Athletics 89¢ $490 22h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 74¢ $707 22h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Texas Rangers 83¢ $33 24h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Texas Rangers 83¢ $5 24h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Texas Rangers 83¢ $361 24h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Texas Rangers 83¢ $306 24h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 88¢ $66 24h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 87¢ $44 24h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 87¢ $680 24h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 91¢ $68 24h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 91¢ $387 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,352.11 · official $2,345.24 (match) · 3500 history records