Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:16:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x816c…d7a2 crypto 35 markets active 11d ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$103 (-3%) realized −$103 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%18W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day42.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$187
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 35 +33.2% +20.5% 51% 43% -22.6%
≤90d 35 +33.2% +20.5% 51% 43% -22.6%
all 35 +33.2% +20.5% 51% 43% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.5% 43% -22.6%
10% ← realistic here +9.0% 29% -30.0%
15% -1.6% 14% -36.8%
20% -11.2% 3% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +107% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$44 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses18 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage2d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day42.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$36 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $128 +$11 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $202 +$25 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $154 −$26 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $157 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$29 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $203 +$58 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $102 −$91 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$21 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$23 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$9 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$38 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $27 +$236 +887%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $236 −$36 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$28 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $154 −$61 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $204 +$35 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $127 +$19 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$10 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$8 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $108 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $31 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $15 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $16 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 97 history records