Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:22:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
81 0x816d…fe5f crypto 1300 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$59 (-1%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate74%961W / 339L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day27.3pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$66
other 20% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.6% -10.1% 10% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 114 -0.8% -10.3% 22% 1% -10.4%
≤90d 1300 -0.8% -10.3% 74% 1% -10.3%
all 1300 -0.8% -10.3% 74% 1% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 1% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses961 / 339
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1300 / 1300
History coverage84d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day27.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1300 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 -1%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 -1%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 -1%
BNB Up or Down - June 7, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 -1%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 -1%
BNB Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 -1%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 -1%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 -1%
BNB Up or Down - June 7, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5AM ET Jun 06 $4 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 11PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 -1%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 -1%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 -1%
BNB Up or Down - June 6, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 -1%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 10PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 10PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 10PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 -0%
BNB Up or Down - June 5, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 -1%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 7d
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 7d
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2694 history records